The Profit Prophet

Visa will be listed on the NYSE tomorrow (ticker = V) and I truly believe that this is a buy! A great international company that has no exposure to credit default risk (rather the banks that use Visa's service) IPO price will be around 40-45 bucks, so I'm going to be buying 50 shares and hopefully ride this thing to the moon. I figure that b/c its such an international company, and the earnings will be in USD, that if the USD continues to decrease, earnings will increase! Also... what the HELL has been going on? Bear Stearns getting bought out by JPM for $2 a share!! Unreal! Its funny how in Portfolio management class last week we talked about M&A's and how the 'acquired' company's stock typically increases in value right after the acquisition takes place... In the case of BSC, today (after the stock dip from 30 to 4 monday morning due to the acquisition) it went up ~30%! JPM has done well lately too... Too bad I put a limit order in on Sunday night .25 below what it opened at :( , would've made about 15% profit in 2 days. UXG and ABX have been getting reamed as of late... Gold futures are over 1000 and gold miners are getting hammered! I don't get it! Technical signs are ugly and I may have to start shorting some calls.

I've been very busy with school lately and have not had much time to post... WHAT A WEEK its been! Markets hit levels around 11,500 and then all of the sudden the Fed pumped in $200 Billion to the credit industry and accepted mortgage backed securites as collateral for the $200B. After this news, markets rallied +417 pts (Dow) and the market has continued the upward trend since. Oil has hit record levels of $111 and gold has finally broken $1000 as a result of the dollars continued decline. This is a very volatile time in the markets, and I'm learning alot each day. Right now, I'm nervous about making any picks, but will be on the Bloomberg tomorrow and will dedicate some time finding a pick. More later...

I'm on the terminal right now, grinding away and finding some new picks. I was just looking at a Crude Oil ETF, USO US (now at 82.93), which looks like an interesting pick in the future. After checking the security characteristic line vs the SPX, it seems that this moves inversely with the market (although, at low confidence), as the RAW beta of the SCL is negative. After running a 102030 test (which I now have preset into the terminal) and putting the Fibonacci retracement annotation in place, I can see that USO US may retrace to the 72-77 range before beginning a C to D leg movement. Assuming a 100% projection (matching A to B movement) after point C is formed, I expect roughly a 20% gain. So, using simple averages, I expect this ETF to be at ((72+77)/2)*1.20=89.40 by next month. Note: I feel that today's big gains in commodities can be attributed to the fact that yesterday was so terrible. Without going into any detail, GSPG is a good penny stock buy right now.

So the other day, my friend showed me that we have a Bloomberg Terminal (professional trader setup) in the Business School... After screwing around with it twice now, I must say, it is one of the most amazing/useful/functional investment tools I have ever seen. EVERY function is at your fingertips with all sorts of information. Even better, if you have any type of question, there is live help instantly available! Supposedly, the terminal monthly costs are around 1,800, but since Janus donated it to the Leeds school, its free for me! I'll be logging onto the Bloomberg in the morning and plan on posting some cool screenshots/graphs. My goal is to figure out how to find some legitimate arb opportunities... More later.